Super El Niño Food Crisis: What JP Morgan and Jaishankar Actually Said

Is a Super El Niño food crisis coming? Both warnings in the viral reels are real. JP Morgan economists say a very strong El Niño, plus costly fuel and fertiliser, could push global food inflation to about 5% in early 2027, with India among the most exposed countries. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said on 28 September 2026 that "there is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months." Both were talking about rising prices and global stress. Neither said India will run short of food, and India starts with large grain stocks.

Contents

• What is a Super El Niño?

• JP Morgan's El Niño warning on food prices

• What Jaishankar said about a food crisis

• El Niño impact on India's monsoon, food prices and farmers

• How India and households can prepare

• FAQ

What is a Super El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern. Every two to seven years, the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual, which changes rain patterns across the world. For India, it usually means a weaker monsoon. "Super El Niño" is not an official category. It is a popular name for a very strong event, like 1997-98 or 2015-16.

This year's event is shaping up to be one of the strongest on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on 3 September 2026 that El Niño is "firmly established", with a near 100% chance it lasts through February 2027 and effects "well into 2027" (WMO).

The US agency NOAA, in its 10 September update, gave a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" event this winter. It also gave a 75% chance that October to December 2026 will be stronger than any El Niño since 1950 (NOAA CPC). WMO adds a useful caution: strength alone "does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country."

JP Morgan's El Niño warning on food prices

In a report released on 24 July 2026, JP Morgan economists put the chance of this El Niño becoming "very strong" or "super" by year end at 81%. They estimated a super El Niño alone would raise global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak, usually four to eight months after the weather shock. Add the Iran war's effect on diesel, fertiliser and packaging costs, and the effect roughly doubles to 1.3 to 1.5 points (Reuters via The Economic Times).

In the bank's words: "The resulting jump in food inflation to a 5% annualised rate in 1H27 would add 0.6 percentage points to global headline inflation." India was named among the most exposed countries, with Indonesia, Brazil and Colombia, because food takes a bigger share of family budgets there and farming depends more on the weather.

A later JP Morgan report, "Food Security Is National Security: A Compounding Storm", went further. According to Newsweek (17 August 2026), senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi wrote that "this is not a short-lived shock" and that "EM [emerging markets] bears the brunt of El Niño," listing India among the most sensitive economies.

The reels usually skip two points. JP Morgan also said conditions are better than in past big El Niño years, with adequate global grain inventories and fairly healthy rice stocks in Asia. And its climate team stressed fertiliser timing: if urea arrives after sowing, yields fall, and El Niño makes that worse (J.P. Morgan, May 2026).

What Jaishankar said about a food crisis

Jaishankar spoke at the Asia Society in New York on 28 September 2026, after the UN General Assembly's high-level week. This is the clip used in many reels. He was describing how the Ukraine war and the Iran-Gulf conflict have hurt developing countries. As reported by PTI in The Hindu, he said:

"We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea."

He said fertiliser shortages were growing because key producers in West Asia and Russia had been hit. Then, adding a super El Niño to the list, he said:

"There is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months. So if you have energy as a big crunch, and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance because every time there's a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very very stressful."

At the same event he described a "4F crisis" of food, fuel, fertilisers and finance (Times of India). He was speaking about the world as a diplomat, asking big powers to consider how their choices affect others. He did not announce a shortage inside India. In fact, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said a day later that "there is no major crisis at the national level," with problems concentrated in some regions (CNBC TV18).

El Niño impact on India's monsoon, food prices and farmers

A weak 2026 monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the June to September monsoon ended at 759.4 mm, 87% of normal and about 12.6% short. That is the lowest since 2015, another strong El Niño year (The Hindu). The south and east got only about 76% and 74% of normal rain (Business Standard), and IMD expects a dry October for most of the country (IMD).

Food prices in India: rice, onions and dal

Wholesale rice was about Rs 4,185 per quintal on 29 September, around 8.5% above a year ago (Moneycontrol). Citi Research has flagged onion prices at nearly double last year's level, with higher sugar, rice and pulse prices too, and reservoirs at 71% of capacity against a 10-year average of 80% (NDTV Profit).

The rabi wheat crop and farmers

Wheat sowing starts this month. A warm, dry winter, low reservoirs or a harvest-time heatwave like 2022 could hurt it. There is some relief: IMD chief M. Mohapatra said recent rain has left good soil moisture in Punjab, Haryana and nearby states (The Hindu). Small, rain-fed farmers carry the heaviest load, facing lower yields while some fertiliser prices have nearly doubled (Outlook).

What past El Niño years teach us

In July 2023, during the last El Niño, India banned exports of non-basmati white rice after rice prices rose more than 11% in a year (BBC). Still, outcomes vary. In 1997, during a very strong El Niño, India's monsoon came in 2% above normal (Business Today).

How India and households can prepare

India's buffers are strong. On 1 September, the Food Corporation of India held about 48 million tonnes of wheat and 39.1 million tonnes of rice, far above buffer norms of 27.58 and 13.54 million tonnes (Informist). The government says rabi fertiliser opening stock is over 163 lakh tonnes, against 122 lakh tonnes last year, and it has trimmed the 2026-27 foodgrain target slightly to 373.93 million tonnes (BusinessLine).

The useful next steps are practical: release stocks on time through ration shops and open market sales, get urea and DAP to farmers before sowing, keep backup seed plans for drought-hit districts, and settle crop insurance claims quickly.

For households, the advice is simple:

• Don't panic-buy or hoard. Hoarding is what pushes prices up for everyone.

• If onions or one dal gets costly, switch for a while to what is cheaper or in season.

• If you are eligible for PDS ration, keep your card and Aadhaar link updated.

• Farmers can ask the local Krishi Vigyan Kendra about drought-tolerant varieties and check PMFBY crop insurance.

FAQ

The bottom line

A very strong El Niño and costly fertiliser are a real risk to food prices, and India is exposed. JP Morgan and Jaishankar have both said so on record. But a risk of higher prices is very different from empty shelves. India has full granaries and a few months to prepare, and calm buying by families helps more than any reel.

Forecasts change every month, so check IMD and NOAA updates rather than forwarded clips. If you keep a folder of trusted sources for stories like this, a bookmark tool such as Boardmarks (our own product) can help you save research links in one place.

Last updated 6 October 2026.